Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints15
- Sam MerrillAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds4
Heat- Haywood HighsmithPoints18
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–121
- Q40.1shot clock turnover84–121
- Q423.1Thomas Bryant defensive rebound84–121
- Q426.1Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumper84–121
- Q434.1Cole Swider makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Cain assists)84–121
- Q447.0Damian Jones makes free throw 1 of 184–118
- Q447.0Jamal Cain shooting foul83–118
- Q447.0Damian Jones makes layup (Marcus Morris Sr. assists)83–118
- Q458.1Sam Merrill defensive rebound81–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:55Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 3 – 0 MIA · CLE 43% → 49% +6CLE 43% → 49%+6 pts
- Q19:46Jimmy Butler makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Terry Rozier assists)CLE 3 – 7 MIA · MIA 59% → 65% +6MIA 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q12:05Haywood Highsmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)CLE 14 – 24 MIA · MIA 72% → 77% +6MIA 72% → 77%+6 pts
- Q11:49Georges Niang makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 17 – 24 MIA · CLE 23% → 28% +6CLE 23% → 28%+6 pts
- Q11:19Georges Niang makes 28-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 20 – 26 MIA · CLE 24% → 30% +6CLE 24% → 30%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 101.6 – 103.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −2 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +39 Elo | MIA 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 109.427th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 109.24th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +0.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 111.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 111.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 17–1619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.