Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists12
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints31
- Vasilije MicicAssists12
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–118
- Q415.1Brandon Miller defensive rebound111–118
- Q420.1Max Strus misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot111–118
- Q425.0Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)111–118
- Q439.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Darius Garland111–115
- Q439.1Evan Mobley enters the game for Sam Merrill111–115
- Q439.1Caris LeVert traveling111–115
- Q447.1Darius Garland enters the game for Isaac Okoro111–115
- Q447.1Sam Merrill enters the game for Evan Mobley111–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:53Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 102 – 104 CHA · CLE 32% → 46% +15CLE 32% → 46%+15 pts
- Q46:48Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 107 – 105 CHA · CLE 51% → 67% +16CLE 51% → 67%+16 pts
- Q43:08Grant Williams makes 4-foot two point shot (Vasilije Micic assists)CLE 111 – 109 CHA · CHA 18% → 30% +13CHA 18% → 30%+13 pts
- Q42:37Miles Bridges makes 1-foot dunk (Brandon Miller assists)CLE 111 – 111 CHA · CHA 29% → 46% +17CHA 29% → 46%+17 pts
- Q41:58Brandon Miller makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 111 – 113 CHA · CHA 47% → 67% +20CHA 47% → 67%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 75%
- Fair odds
- CLE -193
- CHA +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 106.3 – 101.3 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −48 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +187 Elo | CLE 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 106.229th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 116.821st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −10.730th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 107.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 117.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 9–2426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.