LA Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints22
- James HardenAssists14
- Paul GeorgeRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints26
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–107
- Q45.076ers offensive team rebound108–107
- Q45.0Kawhi Leonard vs. Kelly Oubre Jr. (Nicolas Batum gains possession)108–107
- Q45.076ers Full timeout108–107
- Q45.0Kawhi Leonard blocks Kelly Oubre Jr. 's 2-foot driving layup108–107
- Q48.1James Harden enters the game for Terance Mann108–107
- Q48.1(00:08.8) [Clippers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Clippers] charged with a timeout108–107
- Q48.1Clippers Full timeout108–107
- Q48.1Amir Coffey personal foul108–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:51Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)LAC 99 – 104 PHI · PHI 69% → 90% +21PHI 69% → 90%+21 pts
- Q444.0Kawhi Leonard makes 1-foot layup (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 104 – 104 PHI · LAC 20% → 51% +30LAC 20% → 51%+30 pts
- Q423.1Buddy Hield makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 105 – 107 PHI · PHI 28% → 88% +60PHI 28% → 88%+60 pts
- Q415.1Kawhi Leonard makes two point shot (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 107 – 107 PHI · LAC 8% → 50% +43LAC 8% → 50%+43 pts
- Q415.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 1LAC 108 – 107 PHI · LAC 50% → 77% +26LAC 50% → 77%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 56%
- Fair odds
- LAC -125
- PHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.8 – 109.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −58 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −36 | LAC crossed 3 time zones and PHI crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +40 Elo | LAC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 114.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 112.19th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +2.113th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 114.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 112.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.9 | Pace | 99.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 21–1516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.