Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints22
- Kris DunnAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–127
- Q45.1Collin Sexton makes two point shot (Walker Kessler assists)106–127
- Q48.2Walker Kessler defensive rebound104–127
- Q411.1Kessler Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2104–127
- Q411.1Kings offensive team rebound104–127
- Q411.1Kessler Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2104–127
- Q411.1Brice Sensabaugh shooting foul104–127
- Q428.1Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 2 of 2104–127
- Q428.1Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 2103–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q219.1Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)UTAH 52 – 53 SAC · UTAH 22% → 29% +7UTAH 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q311:35Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 55 – 58 SAC · UTAH 18% → 24% +6UTAH 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q311:09Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point shot (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 58 – 58 SAC · UTAH 24% → 32% +8UTAH 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q310:59Keegan Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)UTAH 58 – 61 SAC · SAC 68% → 75% +8SAC 68% → 75%+8 pts
- Q310:33Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)UTAH 58 – 64 SAC · SAC 75% → 82% +7SAC 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -8.5
- SAC 80%
- Fair odds
- SAC -298
- UTAH +298 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.4 – 121.7 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1369 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −15 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +243 Elo | SAC 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 74.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 117.19th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 116.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.2 | Margin | +1.018th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 115.013th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 114.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–27 | Road vs home | 21–1515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.