Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints29
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points24
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Jock LandaleRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–110
- Q40.0shot clock turnover133–110
- Q421.1Kevon Looney defensive rebound133–110
- Q423.1Boban Marjanovic misses 5-foot two point shot133–110
- Q424.1Boban Marjanovic offensive rebound133–110
- Q426.1Nate Williams misses layup133–110
- Q441.2Moses Moody makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)133–110
- Q445.1Boban Marjanovic makes layup (Aaron Holiday assists)131–110
- Q41:05Kevon Looney makes free throw 2 of 2131–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:05Chris Paul makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)GS 28 – 20 HOU · GS 58% → 65% +7GS 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q25:33Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)GS 48 – 41 HOU · HOU 28% → 35% +7HOU 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q24:14Jalen Green makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Fred VanVleet assists)GS 51 – 46 HOU · HOU 32% → 40% +8HOU 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q23:31Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 56 – 46 HOU · GS 66% → 73% +7GS 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q22:08Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)GS 59 – 50 HOU · GS 64% → 71% +8GS 64% → 71%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- GS +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.7 – 115.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | 0 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 114.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 110.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 26–128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.