Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints28
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Caleb MartinAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–92
- Q410.2Cole Swider out of bounds bad pass turnover113–92
- Q423.0Gui Santos makes 2-foot two point shot (Lester Quinones assists)113–92
- Q438.1Alondes Williams makes free throw 1 of 1111–92
- Q438.1Jerome Robinson shooting foul111–91
- Q438.1Alondes Williams makes layup111–91
- Q455.1Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point shot (Moses Moody assists)111–89
- Q41:02Orlando Robinson bad pass (Gary Payton II steals)108–89
- Q41:02Orlando Robinson offensive rebound108–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:02Haywood Highsmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)GS 41 – 43 MIA · MIA 47% → 55% +8MIA 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q24:06Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 44 – 45 MIA · GS 40% → 48% +8GS 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q232.0Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 51 – 53 MIA · GS 36% → 45% +8GS 36% → 45%+8 pts
- Q311:47Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 56 – 55 MIA · GS 45% → 53% +9GS 45% → 53%+9 pts
- Q37:18Stephen Curry makes 33-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 73 – 65 MIA · GS 66% → 75% +8GS 66% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- GS 52%
- Fair odds
- GS -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 109.3 – 109.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −51 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +16 Elo | GS 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 109.627th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 108.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.718th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 111.921st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 18–1619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.