Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints33
- Draymond GreenAssists11
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints32
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–113
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound117–113
- Q40.0Victor Wembanyama misses 28-foot three point jumper117–113
- Q41.1Tre Jones offensive rebound117–113
- Q41.1Victor Wembanyama misses 26-foot three point jumper117–113
- Q43.2Andrew Wiggins enters the game for Klay Thompson117–113
- Q43.2Chris Paul enters the game for Brandin Podziemski117–113
- Q43.2Malaki Branham enters the game for Zach Collins117–113
- Q43.2Spurs Full timeout117–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:40Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 61 – 60 SA · GS 52% → 61% +9GS 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q48:25Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devonte' Graham assists)GS 96 – 92 SA · SA 16% → 27% +11SA 16% → 27%+11 pts
- Q47:27Stephen Curry makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)GS 100 – 92 SA · GS 78% → 88% +10GS 78% → 88%+10 pts
- Q459.1Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2GS 113 – 111 SA · SA 13% → 22% +9SA 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q438.1Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 116 – 111 SA · GS 83% → 99% +16GS 83% → 99%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Fair odds
- GS -161
- SA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 117.4 – 113.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +21 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +125 Elo | GS 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 112.222nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 119.325th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −7.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 108.425th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.93rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 10–2727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 2–1 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.