Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Andrew WigginsRebounds8
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints22
- Vasilije MicicAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–97
- Q412.0Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound115–97
- Q415.1Bryce McGowens misses 27-foot three point jumper115–97
- Q418.0Aleksej Pokusevski offensive rebound115–97
- Q422.0Aleksej Pokusevski misses 26-foot step back jumpshot115–97
- Q441.0Jerome Robinson traveling115–97
- Q447.2Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2115–97
- Q447.2Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2115–96
- Q447.2Kevon Looney shooting foul115–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:19Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 18 – 14 CHA · GS 70% → 76% +6GS 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q259.1Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 47 – 40 CHA · GS 74% → 81% +6GS 74% → 81%+6 pts
- Q246.0Brandon Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)GS 47 – 43 CHA · CHA 19% → 26% +6CHA 19% → 26%+6 pts
- Q20.1Stephen Curry makes 27-foot step back jumpshotGS 50 – 45 CHA · GS 69% → 77% +7GS 69% → 77%+7 pts
- Q310:16Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 57 – 48 CHA · GS 79% → 85% +6GS 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Fair odds
- GS -227
- CHA +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.1 – 106.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −39 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +248 Elo | GS 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 106.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 116.821st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −10.430th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 107.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 117.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 10–2425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.