Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds14
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints26
- Moritz WagnerAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–93
- Q422.0Stephen Curry defensive rebound101–93
- Q425.1Andrew Wiggins blocks Franz Wagner 's 9-foot two point shot101–93
- Q433.1Moritz Wagner enters the game for Jonathan Isaac101–93
- Q433.1Magic Full timeout101–93
- Q433.1Stephen Curry makes 26-foot step back jumpshot101–93
- Q446.0Warriors defensive team rebound98–93
- Q448.1Cole Anthony misses 14-foot two point shot98–93
- Q41:05Andrew Wiggins personal foul98–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:26Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 91 – 83 ORL · GS 77% → 89% +13GS 77% → 89%+13 pts
- Q44:13Paolo Banchero makes 22-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)GS 91 – 86 ORL · ORL 10% → 23% +13ORL 10% → 23%+13 pts
- Q43:15Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)GS 94 – 91 ORL · ORL 14% → 31% +17ORL 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q42:41Cole Anthony makes 15-foot two point shotGS 94 – 93 ORL · ORL 29% → 45% +16ORL 29% → 45%+16 pts
- Q41:41Gary Payton II makes layup (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)GS 96 – 93 ORL · GS 58% → 77% +20GS 58% → 77%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 63%
- Fair odds
- ORL -198
- GS +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 107.3 – 112.5 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | +25 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +92 Elo | ORL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 110.826th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 108.83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +2.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 111.622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 25–95th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.