New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints61
- Josh HartAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds12
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints40
- Victor WembanyamaAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds20
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game126–130
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime126–130
- OT0.0Miles McBride bad pass (Victor Wembanyama steals)126–130
- OT1.0Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2126–130
- OT1.0Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2126–129
- OT1.0Jalen Brunson personal foul126–128
- OT1.1Josh Hart personal take foul126–128
- OT3.0Spurs Full timeout126–128
- OT3.0Precious Achiuwa out of bounds bad pass turnover126–128
- OT3.0Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound126–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:29Victor Wembanyama makes alley oop layup (Devin Vassell assists)NY 119 – 119 SA · SA 25% → 46% +22SA 25% → 46%+22 pts
- Q41:14Jalen Brunson makes 5-foot two point shotNY 121 – 119 SA · NY 53% → 77% +23NY 53% → 77%+23 pts
- Q424.0Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2NY 121 – 121 SA · SA 27% → 48% +21SA 27% → 48%+21 pts
- OT1:37Jalen Brunson makes 8-foot two point shotNY 124 – 125 SA · NY 23% → 43% +20NY 23% → 43%+20 pts
- OT1:12Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three pointer (Devin Vassell assists)NY 124 – 128 SA · SA 60% → 89% +29SA 60% → 89%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 76%
- Fair odds
- NY -240
- SA +240 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 109.7 – 103.0 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +1 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +196 Elo | NY 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.4 | Points scored | 111.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 119.225th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.9 | Margin | −7.226th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 108.226th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 103.03rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 9–2727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.