New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Miles McBridePoints29
- Josh HartAssists10
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds12
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints23
- Kelly OlynykAssists8
- Kelly OlynykRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–101
- Q46.1Mamadi Diakite defensive rebound145–101
- Q49.1Kobi Simmons misses 23-foot three point jumper145–101
- Q423.1Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot (Shake Milton assists)145–101
- Q434.1Javon Freeman-Liberty lost ball turnover (Mamadi Diakite steals)143–101
- Q434.1Mamadi Diakite vs. Javon Freeman-Liberty (Precious Achiuwa gains possession)143–101
- Q442.1Javon Freeman-Liberty defensive rebound143–101
- Q442.1Jericho Sims misses dunk143–101
- Q446.0Shake Milton defensive rebound143–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:36Miles McBride makes 22-foot three pointerNY 3 – 0 TOR · NY 79% → 83% +4NY 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q110:16Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 9 – 2 TOR · NY 84% → 88% +4NY 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q110:00Gradey Dick makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)NY 9 – 5 TOR · TOR 12% → 16% +4TOR 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q19:43Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 12 – 5 TOR · NY 84% → 87% +4NY 84% → 87%+4 pts
- Q17:04Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 23 – 15 TOR · NY 85% → 88% +4NY 85% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -11
- NY 85%
- Fair odds
- NY -369
- TOR +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 111.4 – 101.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −119 | NY: Usual rotation · TOR: Missing Chris Boucher −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +306 Elo | NY 85.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 78.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 117.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −5.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 110.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 13–2324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−119 Elo- Chris Boucher right mcl tear−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 3–0 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.