Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–104
- Q41.1Warriors defensive team rebound100–104
- Q43.0Kyrie Irving misses 22-foot three point shot100–104
- Q410.1Chris Paul enters the game for Gary Payton II100–104
- Q410.1Mavericks Full timeout100–104
- Q410.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2100–104
- Q410.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Chris Paul100–103
- Q410.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2100–103
- Q410.1Maxi Kleber personal foul100–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:04Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 74 – 78 GS · GS 52% → 64% +12GS 52% → 64%+12 pts
- Q45:00Daniel Gafford makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 90 – 92 GS · DAL 27% → 38% +12DAL 27% → 38%+12 pts
- Q44:28Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 10-foot two point shotDAL 92 – 92 GS · DAL 38% → 51% +13DAL 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q43:48Klay Thompson makes 11-foot jumper (Draymond Green assists)DAL 92 – 94 GS · GS 49% → 64% +14GS 49% → 64%+14 pts
- Q43:03Draymond Green makes driving layup (Stephen Curry assists)DAL 92 – 96 GS · GS 65% → 79% +14GS 65% → 79%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -113
- GS +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.2 – 116.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +15 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +24 Elo | DAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +2.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 115.511th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 18–1922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.