Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Johnny JuzangPoints27
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds7
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints32
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–118
- Q47.0Jazz defensive team rebound110–118
- Q49.1Usman Garuba misses 28-foot three point jumper110–118
- Q425.1Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot110–118
- Q431.2Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound108–118
- Q434.1Lester Quinones misses driving layup108–118
- Q445.1Darius Bazley makes dunk108–118
- Q445.1Darius Bazley offensive rebound106–118
- Q447.0Keyonte George misses 24-foot step back jumpshot106–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:22Taylor Hendricks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 3 – 0 GS · UTAH 20% → 24% +5UTAH 20% → 24%+5 pts
- Q19:59Keyonte George makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 8 – 2 GS · UTAH 25% → 30% +5UTAH 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q18:22Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)UTAH 10 – 9 GS · GS 73% → 78% +5GS 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q17:49Klay Thompson makes 24-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 12 – 12 GS · GS 74% → 79% +5GS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q16:45Klay Thompson makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotUTAH 12 – 17 GS · GS 82% → 86% +4GS 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -13
- GS 89%
- Fair odds
- GS -412
- UTAH +412 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.8 – 123.6 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1347 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −87 | −6 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +367 Elo | GS 89.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 115.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.9 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 115.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 309–29 | Road vs home | 19–1921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.