Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints28
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds8
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints32
- Kyrie IrvingAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–108
- Q40.0Warriors offensive team rebound106–108
- Q40.1Klay Thompson misses 25-foot three point jumper106–108
- Q44.1Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Gary Payton II106–108
- Q44.1Stephen Curry enters the game for Trayce Jackson-Davis106–108
- Q44.1Warriors Full timeout106–108
- Q44.1P.J. Washington makes 3-foot layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)106–108
- Q412.1Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Stephen Curry106–106
- Q412.1Mavericks Full timeout106–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q358.0Moses Moody makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)GS 74 – 75 DAL · GS 37% → 49% +12GS 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q458.1Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three pointerGS 104 – 105 DAL · GS 7% → 37% +29GS 7% → 37%+29 pts
- Q422.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2GS 104 – 106 DAL · DAL 72% → 88% +16DAL 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q413.0Stephen Curry makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Chris Paul assists)GS 106 – 106 DAL · GS 6% → 50% +44GS 6% → 50%+44 pts
- Q44.1P.J. Washington makes 3-foot layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)GS 106 – 108 DAL · DAL 50% → >99% +50DAL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 57%
- Fair odds
- GS -128
- DAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.1 – 114.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DAL and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | −54 | GS: Missing Jonathan Kuminga −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +52 Elo | GS 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 118.36th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 115.820th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +2.511th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 116.27th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 23–1514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+27 Elo- Jonathan Kuminga tendinitis−16 Elo
Mavericks
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.