Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints17
- Dejounte MurrayAssists4
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds16
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints26
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–109
- Q416.1A.J. Lawson defensive rebound95–109
- Q419.0Kobe Bufkin misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot95–109
- Q428.1Jaden Hardy makes 20-foot pullup jump shot95–109
- Q430.1Jaden Hardy offensive rebound95–107
- Q432.1Brandon Williams misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot95–107
- Q445.1Bogdan Bogdanovic makes free throw 2 of 295–107
- Q445.1Kobe Bufkin enters the game for De'Andre Hunter94–107
- Q445.1Garrison Mathews enters the game for Dejounte Murray94–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:51Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Dante Exum assists)ATL 42 – 39 DAL · DAL 52% → 60% +8DAL 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q25:30Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three pointer (Luka Doncic assists)ATL 45 – 44 DAL · DAL 56% → 64% +8DAL 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q23:28Garrison Mathews makes 24-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)ATL 52 – 50 DAL · ATL 31% → 39% +8ATL 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q23:11Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)ATL 52 – 53 DAL · DAL 61% → 68% +8DAL 61% → 68%+8 pts
- Q21:50Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 57 – 55 DAL · ATL 32% → 40% +8ATL 32% → 40%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 74%
- Fair odds
- DAL -242
- ATL +242 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.7 – 120.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +50 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +182 Elo | DAL 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 118.56th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 116.120th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 116.37th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 114.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 22–1515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.