Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints31
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints44
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- De'Andre HunterRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–123
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–123
- OT0.0Derrick White inbound turnover122–123
- OT0.0Luke Kornet enters the game for Payton Pritchard122–123
- OT0.0Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Jrue Holiday122–123
- OT0.0Bruno Fernando enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic122–123
- OT0.0Celtics Full timeout122–123
- OT0.1Dejounte Murray makes 21-foot pullup jump shot122–123
- OT6.0Payton Pritchard enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis122–121
- OT6.0Hawks Full timeout122–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q427.0Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)BOS 112 – 112 ATL · ATL 5% → 47% +42ATL 5% → 47%+42 pts
- OT2:21Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 119 – 118 ATL · BOS 39% → 66% +28BOS 39% → 66%+28 pts
- OT2:00Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)BOS 119 – 121 ATL · ATL 34% → 63% +30ATL 34% → 63%+30 pts
- OT6.1Jaylen Brown makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 122 – 121 ATL · BOS 14% → 88% +74BOS 14% → 88%+74 pts
- OT0.1Dejounte Murray makes 21-foot pullup jump shotBOS 122 – 123 ATL · ATL 0% → 100% +100ATL 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11
- BOS 86%
- Fair odds
- BOS -382
- ATL +382 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.9 – 111.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1716 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +71 | −13 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −34, Jalen Johnson −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +313 Elo | BOS 85.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 119.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 120.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.5 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.3 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.1 | Pace | 102.15th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–12 | Road vs home | 19–1719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−13 Elo- Trae Young injury/illness−34 Elo
- Jalen Johnson injury/illness−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.