Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints37
- Payton PritchardAssists6
- Al HorfordRebounds9
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints24
- Dejounte MurrayAssists15
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q41.0Jaden Springer enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis118–120
- Q41.0Vit Krejci enters the game for Clint Capela118–120
- Q41.0Hawks Full timeout118–120
- Q41.0Jayson Tatum makes tip shot118–120
- Q41.0Jayson Tatum offensive rebound116–120
- Q42.0Al Horford misses two point shot116–120
- Q44.1Al Horford offensive rebound116–120
- Q44.1Kristaps Porzingis misses 1-foot tip shot116–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:14Jayson Tatum makes 16-foot step back jumpshotBOS 114 – 111 ATL · BOS 66% → 81% +16BOS 66% → 81%+16 pts
- Q41:34Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)BOS 114 – 115 ATL · ATL 24% → 56% +32ATL 24% → 56%+32 pts
- Q41:17Jaylen Brown makes 13-foot pullup jump shotBOS 116 – 115 ATL · BOS 42% → 67% +25BOS 42% → 67%+25 pts
- Q41:00Dejounte Murray makes two point shotBOS 116 – 117 ATL · ATL 32% → 60% +28ATL 32% → 60%+28 pts
- Q410.0De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)BOS 116 – 120 ATL · ATL 80% → >99% +20ATL 80% → >99%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10.5
- BOS 85%
- Fair odds
- BOS -335
- ATL +335 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.3 – 112.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1727 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +70 | −25 | BOS: Missing Derrick White −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −35, Jalen Johnson −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +298 Elo | BOS 84.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.2 | Points scored | 119.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 120.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −1.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.3 | Offense rating | 115.910th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 117.527th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.2 | Pace | 102.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–11 | Road vs home | 17–1720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+70 Elo- Derrick White sprained right hand−15 Elo
Hawks
−25 Elo- Trae Young finger injury−35 Elo
- Jalen Johnson sprained right ankle−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.