Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints31
- Dalano BantonAssists9
- Rayan RupertRebounds6
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints30
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–120
- Q418.1Justin Minaya makes two point shot106–120
- Q421.0Justin Minaya defensive rebound104–120
- Q424.1Trent Forrest misses 25-foot three point jumper104–120
- Q448.1Ashton Hagans makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot104–120
- Q455.0Ashton Hagans defensive rebound102–120
- Q457.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 25-foot three point jumper102–120
- Q41:12Dylan Windler defensive rebound102–120
- Q41:15Clint Capela blocks Rayan Rupert 's 2-foot driving layup102–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q136.1Ashton Hagans makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)POR 29 – 26 ATL · POR 31% → 37% +7POR 31% → 37%+7 pts
- Q27:32Dylan Windler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trent Forrest assists)POR 43 – 46 ATL · ATL 68% → 74% +7ATL 68% → 74%+7 pts
- Q27:23Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 46 – 46 ATL · POR 26% → 32% +7POR 26% → 32%+7 pts
- Q25:53Dejounte Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)POR 49 – 51 ATL · ATL 65% → 72% +7ATL 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q23:53Dejounte Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)POR 51 – 54 ATL · ATL 67% → 74% +7ATL 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -7.5
- ATL 77%
- Fair odds
- ATL -253
- POR +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 110.8 – 117.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −65 | −22 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −35, Jalen Johnson −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +211 Elo | ATL 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 119.25th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 120.727th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | −1.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 117.527th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.2 | Pace | 102.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–26 | Road vs home | 18–1719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−22 Elo- Trae Young left finger−35 Elo
- Jalen Johnson sprained right ankle−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.