Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malachi FlynnPoints50
- Malachi FlynnAssists5
- Malachi FlynnRebounds6
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints28
- Jalen JohnsonAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q45.2Jalen Johnson defensive rebound113–121
- Q410.1Evan Fournier misses 26-foot three point jumper113–121
- Q413.0Pistons Full timeout113–121
- Q413.0Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2113–121
- Q413.0Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2113–120
- Q413.0Chimezie Metu personal take foul113–119
- Q413.1Hawks defensive team rebound113–119
- Q414.2Malachi Flynn misses 23-foot three point jumper113–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:58Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three pointer (Bruno Fernando assists)DET 35 – 37 ATL · ATL 68% → 75% +6ATL 68% → 75%+6 pts
- Q25:54Tosan Evbuomwan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malachi Flynn assists)DET 42 – 41 ATL · DET 26% → 32% +7DET 26% → 32%+7 pts
- Q24:18De'Andre Hunter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)DET 42 – 45 ATL · ATL 70% → 76% +7ATL 70% → 76%+7 pts
- Q45:19Malachi Flynn makes 23-foot three pointerDET 99 – 104 ATL · DET 7% → 16% +9DET 7% → 16%+9 pts
- Q45:06De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)DET 99 – 107 ATL · ATL 85% → 93% +9ATL 85% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -8
- ATL 79%
- Fair odds
- ATL -295
- DET +295 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.0 – 119.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1346 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | −4 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −23 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +228 Elo | ATL 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 74.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 119.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.8 | Margin | −1.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 117.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–30 | Road vs home | 20–1819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−52 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−23 Elo
Hawks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.