Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points40
- Luke KennardAssists8
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds13
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints36
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- James WisemanRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–108
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound110–108
- Q40.0Cade Cunningham misses 11-foot two point shot110–108
- Q49.1James Wiseman defensive rebound110–108
- Q411.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses driving layup110–108
- Q433.0Tosan Evbuomwan enters the game for Evan Fournier110–108
- Q433.0Grizzlies Full timeout110–108
- Q433.0Grizzlies defensive team rebound110–108
- Q436.1Chimezie Metu misses 23-foot three point jumper110–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:09Brandon Clarke makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 95 – 94 DET · MEM 40% → 55% +15MEM 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q44:22Evan Fournier makes 26-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)MEM 104 – 101 DET · DET 15% → 30% +15DET 15% → 30%+15 pts
- Q43:42Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three point jumper (Evan Fournier assists)MEM 104 – 104 DET · DET 29% → 50% +21DET 29% → 50%+21 pts
- Q43:21Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layupMEM 106 – 104 DET · MEM 50% → 65% +15MEM 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q42:19James Wiseman makes 1-foot dunk (Jaden Ivey assists)MEM 110 – 108 DET · DET 17% → 32% +15DET 17% → 32%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- MEM 42%
- Fair odds
- MEM -100
- DET +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 108.2 – 108.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1352 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −21 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +57 Elo | DET 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 110.625th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 119.526th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | −8.927th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 108.227th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 116.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.78th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 7–3129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.