Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds17
Wizards- Corey KispertPoints23
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Deni AvdijaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–87
- Q416.1Evan Fournier defensive rebound96–87
- Q418.1Kyle Kuzma misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot96–87
- Q424.1Jared Butler enters the game for Deni Avdija96–87
- Q424.1Wizards Full timeout96–87
- Q424.1Evan Fournier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)96–87
- Q443.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound93–87
- Q447.0Jordan Poole misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot93–87
- Q449.1Corey Kispert defensive rebound93–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Deni Avdija makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDET 80 – 75 WSH · WSH 25% → 36% +11WSH 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q46:50Anthony Gill makes 2-foot layup (Kyle Kuzma assists)DET 82 – 83 WSH · WSH 49% → 60% +11WSH 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q46:36Jalen Duren makes 1-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 84 – 83 WSH · DET 40% → 51% +11DET 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q45:21Jalen Duren makes 2-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 86 – 83 WSH · DET 52% → 64% +12DET 52% → 64%+12 pts
- Q44:48Cade Cunningham makes driving layupDET 88 – 83 WSH · DET 65% → 77% +11DET 65% → 77%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -2.5
- WSH 59%
- Fair odds
- WSH -165
- DET +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.5 – 118.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1332 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | 0 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +64 Elo | WSH 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 113.717th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 123.430th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −9.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 118.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.7 | Pace | 104.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–30 | Road vs home | 6–2930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.