Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jordan GoodwinPoints16
- Luke KennardAssists5
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds11
Magic- Wendell Carter Jr.Points15
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–118
- Q49.1Lamar Stevens makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)88–118
- Q425.1Admiral Schofield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)85–118
- Q444.0Scotty Pippen Jr. makes two point shot (Zavier Simpson assists)85–115
- Q447.1Chuma Okeke lost ball turnover (Zavier Simpson steals)83–115
- Q456.1Goga Bitadze defensive rebound83–115
- Q459.1Jordan Goodwin misses 20-foot jumper83–115
- Q41:12Goga Bitadze personal foul83–115
- Q41:12Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound83–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31Scotty Pippen Jr. makes two point shotMEM 2 – 0 ORL · MEM 34% → 38% +4MEM 34% → 38%+4 pts
- Q17:22Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)MEM 6 – 9 ORL · ORL 65% → 71% +6ORL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q16:48Jake LaRavia makes 22-foot three point shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)MEM 9 – 9 ORL · MEM 29% → 35% +6MEM 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q16:10Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three pointer (Paolo Banchero assists)MEM 9 – 14 ORL · ORL 69% → 75% +6ORL 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q14:10Joe Ingles makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)MEM 9 – 21 ORL · ORL 81% → 85% +4ORL 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -7
- ORL 75%
- Fair odds
- ORL -192
- MEM +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 99.7 – 104.7 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −4 | MEM: Usual rotation · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +192 Elo | ORL 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.1 | Points scored | 110.426th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 108.53rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +1.915th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.1 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 25–117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.