LA Clippers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints29
- Kawhi LeonardAssists5
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds11
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Jalen SuggsAssists5
- Moritz WagnerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–97
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound100–97
- Q40.0Franz Wagner misses 27-foot three point jumper100–97
- Q41.1Magic offensive team rebound100–97
- Q43.0Franz Wagner misses 23-foot three point shot100–97
- Q45.0Terance Mann enters the game for Ivica Zubac100–97
- Q45.0Amir Coffey enters the game for Norman Powell100–97
- Q45.0Joe Ingles enters the game for Jonathan Isaac100–97
- Q45.0Magic Full timeout100–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:01Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point shot (Franz Wagner assists)LAC 89 – 90 ORL · ORL 41% → 59% +17ORL 41% → 59%+17 pts
- Q43:49Paul George makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (James Harden assists)LAC 94 – 94 ORL · LAC 27% → 48% +21LAC 27% → 48%+21 pts
- Q42:25Kawhi Leonard makes 17-foot two point shotLAC 96 – 95 ORL · LAC 39% → 57% +18LAC 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q41:28Paolo Banchero makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotLAC 96 – 97 ORL · ORL 40% → 63% +23ORL 40% → 63%+23 pts
- Q434.1Kawhi Leonard makes 19-foot two point shotLAC 98 – 97 ORL · LAC 31% → 68% +37LAC 31% → 68%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 62%
- Fair odds
- ORL -139
- LAC +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 108.5 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +12 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +82 Elo | ORL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 110.626th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 108.73rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 25–106th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.