Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Rui HachimuraPoints32
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- LeBron JamesRebounds14
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints26
- Desmond BaneAssists16
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–124
- Q40.1shot clock turnover136–124
- Q424.1Maozinha Pereira makes tip shot136–124
- Q424.1Maozinha Pereira offensive rebound136–122
- Q425.1GG Jackson misses 24-foot three point jumper136–122
- Q437.1Max Christie makes 18-foot pullup jump shot136–122
- Q451.1Maozinha Pereira makes dunk (Lamar Stevens assists)134–122
- Q41:01Lamar Stevens defensive rebound134–120
- Q41:04Harry Giles III misses 24-foot three point jumper134–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:29Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)LAL 55 – 49 MEM · LAL 58% → 65% +7LAL 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q24:53Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)LAL 56 – 52 MEM · MEM 32% → 39% +7MEM 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q22:16Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)LAL 65 – 57 MEM · LAL 64% → 71% +8LAL 64% → 71%+8 pts
- Q411:49Jake LaRavia makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)LAL 102 – 95 MEM · MEM 15% → 23% +8MEM 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q411:36Rui Hachimura makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 105 – 95 MEM · LAL 77% → 86% +8LAL 77% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3
- MEM 38%
- Fair odds
- MEM -100
- LAL +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.3 – 113.3 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −39 | +19 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +82 Elo | LAL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 105.930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 112.811th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −6.925th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 105.230th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 112.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.016th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 8–2728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.