Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints34
- D'Angelo RussellAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds23
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints29
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds21
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game128–124
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime128–124
- 2OT0.0Bucks offensive team rebound128–124
- 2OT1.0Malik Beasley misses 27-foot three point jumper128–124
- 2OT1.1Pat Connaughton enters the game for Jae Crowder128–124
- 2OT1.1Taurean Prince enters the game for Rui Hachimura128–124
- 2OT1.1Bobby Portis enters the game for Brook Lopez128–124
- 2OT1.1Khris Middleton enters the game for Pat Connaughton128–124
- 2OT1.1Bucks Full timeout128–124
- 2OT1.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2128–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT2:19Spencer Dinwiddie makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 111 – 108 MIL · LAL 45% → 72% +27LAL 45% → 72%+27 pts
- OT1:28Malik Beasley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)LAL 111 – 111 MIL · MIL 21% → 54% +33MIL 21% → 54%+33 pts
- OT13.1Damian Lillard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)LAL 115 – 117 MIL · MIL 23% → 94% +71MIL 23% → 94%+71 pts
- OT3.0D'Angelo Russell makes free throw 2 of 2LAL 117 – 117 MIL · LAL 5% → 49% +44LAL 5% → 49%+44 pts
- 2OT38.1Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 124 – 121 MIL · LAL 47% → 90% +43LAL 47% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 73%
- Fair odds
- MIL -243
- LAL +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.6 – 123.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | +50 | LAL: Missing LeBron James −62 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +172 Elo | MIL 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 120.63rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +3.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 117.65th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 114.017th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 29–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−36 Elo- LeBron James left ankle−62 Elo
Bucks
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.