Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints20
- Bogdan BogdanovicAssists6
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints31
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–101
- Q43.0shot clock turnover113–101
- Q424.0Wesley Matthews defensive rebound113–101
- Q427.1Onuralp Bitim misses 25-foot three point jumper113–101
- Q445.1Adama Sanogo defensive rebound113–101
- Q447.2Kobe Bufkin misses 22-foot three point jumper113–101
- Q41:10Terry Taylor makes free throw 2 of 2113–101
- Q41:10Terry Taylor makes free throw 1 of 2113–100
- Q41:10Garrison Mathews shooting foul113–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:52Vit Krejci makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 47 – 45 CHI · ATL 45% → 53% +8ATL 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q24:20Dejounte Murray makes 22-foot three point shot (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 50 – 45 CHI · ATL 53% → 61% +8ATL 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q251.1Vit Krejci makes 27-foot three pointerATL 58 – 51 CHI · ATL 59% → 67% +8ATL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q20.1Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 61 – 53 CHI · ATL 62% → 70% +8ATL 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q310:29Vit Krejci makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 66 – 57 CHI · ATL 65% → 73% +8ATL 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHI 51%
- Fair odds
- CHI -115
- ATL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.3 – 116.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | +7 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +5 Elo | CHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 112.123rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.521st of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 112.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 114.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.0 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–518th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 19–1921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–2 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.