Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints36
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints38
- Dejounte MurrayAssists12
- Bogdan BogdanovicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–113
- Q43.1Brook Lopez defensive rebound122–113
- Q46.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 24-foot step back jumpshot122–113
- Q411.0Vit Krejci defensive rebound122–113
- Q412.1Pat Connaughton misses free throw 2 of 2122–113
- Q412.1Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 2122–113
- Q412.1Bogdan Bogdanovic loose ball foul121–113
- Q412.1Bucks defensive team rebound121–113
- Q416.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot121–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:15Khris Middleton makes 24-foot three pointerMIL 25 – 21 ATL · MIL 52% → 58% +7MIL 52% → 58%+7 pts
- Q48:29De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Dejounte Murray assists)MIL 94 – 86 ATL · ATL 9% → 16% +7ATL 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q47:44Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three pointer (Dejounte Murray assists)MIL 94 – 89 ATL · ATL 15% → 26% +11ATL 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q47:31Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 97 – 89 ATL · MIL 74% → 85% +11MIL 74% → 85%+11 pts
- Q47:00Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)MIL 100 – 89 ATL · MIL 86% → 93% +7MIL 86% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 50%
- Fair odds
- ATL -103
- MIL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.0 – 118.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −16 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −34, Jalen Johnson −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL 0 Elo | ATL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 119.25th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 120.528th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 117.327th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 102.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−16 Elo- Trae Young finger injury−34 Elo
- Jalen Johnson sprained ankle−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.