Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints28
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–107
- Q49.0Herbert Jones defensive rebound100–107
- Q412.1Khris Middleton misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot100–107
- Q417.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2100–107
- Q417.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2100–106
- Q417.0Malik Beasley personal foul100–105
- Q422.1Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three pointer100–105
- Q428.1Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 297–105
- Q428.1Herbert Jones makes free throw 1 of 297–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:54Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 23 – 22 NO · MIL 44% → 51% +7MIL 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q32:50Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)MIL 71 – 77 NO · NO 62% → 72% +10NO 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q32:38Trey Murphy III makes 30-foot three point shot (CJ McCollum assists)MIL 71 – 80 NO · NO 72% → 81% +9NO 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q31:37Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)MIL 73 – 83 NO · NO 76% → 84% +8NO 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q43:27Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 93 – 98 NO · MIL 6% → 16% +10MIL 6% → 16%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 55%
- Fair odds
- NO -108
- MIL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.9 – 113.5 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +13 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +36 Elo | NO 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 115.713th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 110.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +5.24th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 115.99th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 110.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.617th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 20–1415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+13 Elo- Jose Alvarado injury/illness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.