Utah Jazz at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Talen Horton-TuckerPoints17
- Jason PrestonAssists6
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds7
Clippers- Terance MannPoints19
- James HardenAssists15
- James HardenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–131
- Q45.0shot clock turnover102–131
- Q429.0Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Jason Preston assists)102–131
- Q440.1Bones Hyland makes driving layup100–131
- Q454.0Mason Plumlee defensive rebound100–129
- Q456.1Johnny Juzang misses 5-foot two point shot100–129
- Q41:11Darius Bazley defensive rebound100–129
- Q41:11Mason Plumlee misses layup100–129
- Q41:13Kobe Brown offensive rebound100–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)UTAH 0 – 3 LAC · LAC 71% → 76% +5LAC 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q111:10James Harden makes 10-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 0 – 5 LAC · LAC 76% → 79% +3LAC 76% → 79%+3 pts
- Q110:55Omer Yurtseven makes 6-foot two point shot (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 2 – 5 LAC · UTAH 21% → 24% +3UTAH 21% → 24%+3 pts
- Q110:36P.J. Tucker makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)UTAH 2 – 8 LAC · LAC 76% → 80% +5LAC 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q110:13James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 2 – 11 LAC · LAC 80% → 84% +4LAC 80% → 84%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 75%
- Fair odds
- LAC -241
- UTAH +241 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.4 – 120.0 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −86 | −57 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +191 Elo | LAC 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 115.812th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.5 | Margin | +3.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 114.019th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 309–28 | Road vs home | 23–1311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.