LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Russell WestbrookPoints20
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints22
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–109
- Q419.1Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 295–109
- Q419.1Russell Westbrook makes free throw 1 of 294–109
- Q419.1Kessler Edwards shooting foul93–109
- Q433.1Colby Jones makes tip shot93–109
- Q433.1Colby Jones offensive rebound93–107
- Q435.1Mason Jones misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot93–107
- Q454.1Colby Jones defensive rebound93–107
- Q456.2Brandon Boston Jr. misses free throw 1 of 193–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14.0Brandon Boston Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 24 – 21 SAC · LAC 42% → 50% +7LAC 42% → 50%+7 pts
- Q10.0Trey Lyles makes 28-foot three pointer (De'Aaron Fox assists)LAC 24 – 24 SAC · SAC 50% → 58% +7SAC 50% → 58%+7 pts
- Q21:16Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trey Lyles assists)LAC 49 – 55 SAC · SAC 65% → 72% +8SAC 65% → 72%+8 pts
- Q37:46Harrison Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)LAC 57 – 64 SAC · SAC 68% → 76% +8SAC 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q37:08Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 60 – 67 SAC · LAC 17% → 24% +7LAC 17% → 24%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 62%
- Fair odds
- SAC -142
- LAC +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.4 – 116.0 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −4 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +82 Elo | SAC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 116.018th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +1.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 115.213th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 114.017th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–14 | Road vs home | 22–1514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.