LA Clippers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints41
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints33
- Vasilije MicicAssists13
- Miles BridgesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–118
- Q47.2shot clock turnover130–118
- Q430.1James Harden defensive rebound130–118
- Q432.1Miles Bridges misses 26-foot three point jumper130–118
- Q443.1Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2130–118
- Q443.1Amir Coffey enters the game for Kawhi Leonard129–118
- Q443.1Paul George makes free throw 1 of 2129–118
- Q443.1Brandon Miller personal take foul128–118
- Q443.1Paul George defensive rebound128–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:32Vasilije Micic makes 27-foot three pointerLAC 76 – 70 CHA · CHA 14% → 20% +6CHA 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q36:51Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three pointerLAC 78 – 73 CHA · CHA 16% → 22% +7CHA 16% → 22%+7 pts
- Q34:09Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 86 – 77 CHA · LAC 80% → 87% +7LAC 80% → 87%+7 pts
- Q33:56Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)LAC 86 – 80 CHA · CHA 13% → 20% +7CHA 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q45:24Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)LAC 111 – 105 CHA · CHA 6% → 13% +8CHA 6% → 13%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 76%
- Fair odds
- LAC -241
- CHA +241 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.2 – 104.5 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1329 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −45 | LAC: Usual rotation · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +200 Elo | LAC 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 106.229th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 116.721st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.5 | Margin | −10.530th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 107.228th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 117.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.7 | Pace | 98.722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 10–2526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.