Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints36
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints28
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–102
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound100–102
- Q40.1Nikola Jokic misses 30-foot three point shot100–102
- Q45.0Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Peyton Watson100–102
- Q45.0P.J. Tucker enters the game for Ivica Zubac100–102
- Q45.0Nuggets Full timeout100–102
- Q45.0Peyton Watson defensive rebound100–102
- Q46.0James Harden misses 27-foot step back jumpshot100–102
- Q433.0Peyton Watson enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.100–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:53Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 88 – 92 LAC · DEN 14% → 27% +14DEN 14% → 27%+14 pts
- Q43:51Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 92 – 94 LAC · DEN 19% → 37% +18DEN 19% → 37%+18 pts
- Q41:46Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 97 – 98 LAC · DEN 30% → 40% +10DEN 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q41:27Ivica Zubac makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 97 – 99 LAC · LAC 61% → 72% +11LAC 61% → 72%+11 pts
- Q456.0Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 100 – 102 LAC · DEN 3% → 23% +20DEN 3% → 23%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 64%
- Fair odds
- DEN -127
- LAC +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.9 – 110.1 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −60 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +102 Elo | DEN 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 112.710th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +3.37th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 114.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 98.624th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 22–1311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–1 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.