San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Malaki BranhamPoints24
- Tre JonesAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints42
- Christian BraunAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
- Q40.1Spurs offensive team rebound105–110
- Q40.1Victor Wembanyama misses two point shot105–110
- Q41.1Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound105–110
- Q45.1Tre Jones misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot105–110
- Q48.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2105–110
- Q48.1Christian Braun enters the game for Reggie Jackson105–109
- Q48.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2105–109
- Q48.1Victor Wembanyama personal take foul105–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:35Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 98 – 99 DEN · SA 19% → 36% +17SA 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q42:29Malaki Branham makes driving layup (Tre Jones assists)SA 103 – 103 DEN · SA 27% → 44% +17SA 27% → 44%+17 pts
- Q41:21Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot two point shotSA 103 – 105 DEN · DEN 54% → 77% +22DEN 54% → 77%+22 pts
- Q41:02Victor Wembanyama makes driving layupSA 105 – 105 DEN · SA 21% → 46% +25SA 21% → 46%+25 pts
- Q427.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)SA 105 – 108 DEN · DEN 52% → 95% +43DEN 52% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 78%
- Fair odds
- DEN -286
- SA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 107.5 – 115.5 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +3 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +221 Elo | DEN 78.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 114.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 109.87th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +4.84th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 116.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30102.8 | Pace | 98.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–29 | Road vs home | 30–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–2 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.