Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Jazz- Talen Horton-TuckerPoints24
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–95
- Q410.1Jay Huff offensive rebound111–95
- Q414.0Hunter Tyson misses 26-foot three point jumper111–95
- Q433.1Talen Horton-Tucker bad pass (Jay Huff steals)111–95
- Q450.1Luka Samanic defensive rebound111–95
- Q453.1Justin Holiday misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot111–95
- Q459.1Luka Samanic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)111–95
- Q41:10Justin Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)111–92
- Q41:28Omer Yurtseven makes 2-foot dunk (Luka Samanic assists)108–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:51Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Samanic assists)DEN 74 – 68 UTAH · UTAH 9% → 14% +5UTAH 9% → 14%+5 pts
- Q31:26Talen Horton-Tucker makes 26-foot three pointer (Keyonte George assists)DEN 80 – 77 UTAH · UTAH 14% → 22% +8UTAH 14% → 22%+8 pts
- Q31:06Reggie Jackson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 83 – 77 UTAH · DEN 78% → 86% +8DEN 78% → 86%+8 pts
- Q33.1Talen Horton-Tucker makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDEN 87 – 80 UTAH · UTAH 7% → 12% +5UTAH 7% → 12%+5 pts
- Q45:30Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 98 – 88 UTAH · DEN 92% → 97% +5DEN 92% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -13
- DEN 89%
- Fair odds
- DEN -447
- UTAH +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 120.3 – 108.9 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −121 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +371 Elo | DEN 89.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 115.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 120.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −4.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 113.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 118.030th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 101.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 20–1920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−121 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–1 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.