Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Clint CapelaPoints19
- Dejounte MurrayAssists12
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Nuggets- Kentavious Caldwell-PopePoints24
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–142
- Q42.1shot clock turnover110–142
- Q425.1Jalen Pickett defensive rebound110–142
- Q428.1Mouhamed Gueye misses 13-foot two point shot110–142
- Q442.0Hunter Tyson makes driving layup (Jalen Pickett assists)110–142
- Q454.1Kobe Bufkin makes 12-foot pullup jump shot110–140
- Q41:06Jay Huff makes driving dunk (Julian Strawther assists)108–140
- Q41:13Julian Strawther defensive rebound108–138
- Q41:16Vit Krejci misses 26-foot step back jumpshot108–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:44Dejounte Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 3 – 0 DEN · ATL 35% → 40% +6ATL 35% → 40%+6 pts
- Q111:17Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)ATL 3 – 3 DEN · DEN 59% → 65% +6DEN 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q19:24Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)ATL 5 – 8 DEN · DEN 65% → 71% +6DEN 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q19:11De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 8 – 8 DEN · ATL 29% → 35% +6ATL 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q17:34Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)ATL 12 – 15 DEN · DEN 65% → 71% +6DEN 65% → 71%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5
- DEN 69%
- Fair odds
- DEN -190
- ATL +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 110.2 – 115.0 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +13 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +136 Elo | DEN 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +4.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 116.26th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 111.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–23 | Road vs home | 31–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.