Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints21
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Jonathan IsaacRebounds8
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints37
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Fred VanVleetRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–118
- Q423.2Jett Howard bad pass (Nate Hinton steals)106–118
- Q427.1Chuma Okeke defensive rebound106–118
- Q431.0Jett Howard blocks Jermaine Samuels Jr. 's 4-foot two point shot106–118
- Q445.0Chuma Okeke makes layup (Jett Howard assists)106–118
- Q451.0Nate Williams enters the game for Dillon Brooks104–118
- Q451.0Nate Hinton enters the game for Fred VanVleet104–118
- Q451.0Jermaine Samuels Jr. enters the game for Jalen Green104–118
- Q451.0Dillon Brooks personal take foul104–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:09Joe Ingles makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)ORL 91 – 97 HOU · ORL 14% → 24% +10ORL 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q48:19Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointerORL 91 – 100 HOU · HOU 77% → 87% +10HOU 77% → 87%+10 pts
- Q46:43Markelle Fultz makes 5-foot two point shot (Gary Harris assists)ORL 97 – 103 HOU · ORL 13% → 20% +7ORL 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q46:32Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)ORL 97 – 106 HOU · HOU 80% → 90% +10HOU 80% → 90%+10 pts
- Q45:10Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeff Green assists)ORL 99 – 109 HOU · HOU 87% → 94% +8HOU 87% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- HOU 50%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- ORL +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.0 – 109.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −13 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +3 Elo | HOU 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 114.216th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.3 | Points allowed | 113.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.818th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.