Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints30
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds10
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–113
- Q423.0Henri Drell out of bounds bad pass turnover98–113
- Q434.1Jett Howard makes 27-foot step back jumpshot98–113
- Q442.2Jett Howard defensive rebound98–110
- Q446.2Onuralp Bitim misses 23-foot three point jumper98–110
- Q456.1Adama Sanogo defensive rebound98–110
- Q41:00Chuma Okeke misses 26-foot three point jumper98–110
- Q41:19Onuralp Bitim makes two point shot (Henri Drell assists)98–110
- Q41:20Anthony Black lost ball turnover (Onuralp Bitim steals)96–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 3 – 4 ORL · CHI 30% → 36% +6CHI 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q18:15Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 6 – 10 ORL · CHI 25% → 30% +5CHI 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q46:49DeMar DeRozan makes 12-foot step back jumpshotCHI 89 – 96 ORL · CHI 9% → 14% +5CHI 9% → 14%+5 pts
- Q46:36Paolo Banchero makes 17-foot pullup jump shotCHI 90 – 98 ORL · ORL 83% → 89% +6ORL 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q46:10Joe Ingles makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)CHI 90 – 101 ORL · ORL 90% → 96% +6ORL 90% → 96%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 64%
- Fair odds
- ORL -167
- CHI +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 104.6 – 108.5 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +18 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +101 Elo | ORL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30111.9 | Points scored | 110.625th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +2.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 111.623rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 109.42nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 27–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.