New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Miles McBrideRebounds7
Bulls- Javonte GreenPoints25
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Andre DrummondRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–108
- Q45.1shot clock turnover100–108
- Q427.0DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound100–108
- Q431.1Miles McBride misses 25-foot three point jumper100–108
- Q439.1DeMar DeRozan bad pass (Jalen Brunson steals)100–108
- Q457.2Donte DiVincenzo bad pass (Javonte Green steals)100–108
- Q459.0Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound100–108
- Q41:00Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot100–108
- Q41:12Ayo Dosunmu makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)100–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:23Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 71 – 75 CHI · NY 26% → 36% +10NY 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q31:17Torrey Craig makes two point shot (Alex Caruso assists)NY 75 – 81 CHI · CHI 65% → 72% +7CHI 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q411:43DeMar DeRozan makes 5-foot two point shotNY 76 – 83 CHI · CHI 70% → 77% +7CHI 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q42:29Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot pullup jump shotNY 96 – 101 CHI · NY 5% → 13% +7NY 5% → 13%+7 pts
- Q42:06Javonte Green makes two point shotNY 97 – 103 CHI · CHI 84% → 93% +9CHI 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- CHI 43%
- Fair odds
- CHI -101
- NY +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.1 – 107.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +4 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +50 Elo | NY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 111.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −1.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 114.421st of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 19–2022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.