Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Josh HartRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q40.1shot clock turnover109–120
- Q422.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound109–120
- Q426.0Sasha Vezenkov misses 26-foot three point jumper109–120
- Q434.0Shake Milton enters the game for Jalen Brunson109–120
- Q434.0Jalen Brunson personal take foul109–120
- Q435.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2109–120
- Q435.0Mamadi Diakite enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein109–119
- Q435.0Jericho Sims enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo109–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:10Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSAC 84 – 84 NY · NY 45% → 57% +12NY 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q310.1De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSAC 87 – 87 NY · SAC 32% → 44% +12SAC 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q411:42Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumperSAC 87 – 90 NY · NY 56% → 68% +12NY 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q410:32Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Len assists)SAC 92 – 92 NY · SAC 31% → 44% +13SAC 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q49:55De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSAC 95 – 92 NY · SAC 44% → 58% +14SAC 44% → 58%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Fair odds
- NY -167
- SAC +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 106.1 – 110.0 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +7 | SAC: Usual rotation · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | SAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +115 Elo | NY 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 112.420th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 115.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.7 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 24–149th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.