Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints33
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints30
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–112
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound113–112
- Q40.0Jalen Brunson misses 16-foot two point shot113–112
- Q41.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Isaiah Joe113–112
- Q41.1Chet Holmgren enters the game for Josh Giddey113–112
- Q41.1Jalen Brunson enters the game for DaQuan Jeffries113–112
- Q41.1Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Precious Achiuwa113–112
- Q41.1Knicks Full timeout113–112
- Q42.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)113–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:33Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)OKC 104 – 104 NY · NY 29% → 50% +22NY 29% → 50%+22 pts
- Q42:50Jalen Williams makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 107 – 104 NY · OKC 50% → 74% +24OKC 50% → 74%+24 pts
- Q41:48Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)OKC 109 – 108 NY · NY 14% → 40% +25NY 14% → 40%+25 pts
- Q44.0Jalen Brunson makes driving layupOKC 111 – 112 NY · NY 8% → 92% +84NY 8% → 92%+84 pts
- Q42.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 113 – 112 NY · OKC 3% → 97% +95OKC 3% → 97%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 52%
- Fair odds
- NY -106
- OKC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 109.4 – 109.8 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +13 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone and NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +15 Elo | NY 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.5 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.5 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 115.412th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 24–139th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.