Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Grayson AllenRebounds9
Thunder- Josh GiddeyPoints23
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Josh GiddeyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–128
- Q46.0shot clock turnover103–128
- Q428.1Nassir Little makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Isaiah Thomas assists)103–128
- Q436.1Suns defensive team rebound101–128
- Q436.1Josh Okogie blocks Aaron Wiggins 's 3-foot two point shot101–128
- Q448.0Josh Okogie makes free throw 2 of 2101–128
- Q448.0Josh Okogie makes free throw 1 of 2100–128
- Q448.0Kenrich Williams shooting foul99–128
- Q41:01Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Muscala assists)99–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:13Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)PHX 29 – 31 OKC · OKC 44% → 51% +7OKC 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q11:00Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 32 – 31 OKC · PHX 49% → 56% +7PHX 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q138.0Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)PHX 32 – 34 OKC · OKC 44% → 51% +7OKC 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q29:24Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Kenrich Williams assists)PHX 36 – 41 OKC · OKC 52% → 59% +7OKC 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q23:52Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)PHX 48 – 57 OKC · OKC 63% → 70% +7OKC 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 57%
- Fair odds
- PHX -118
- OKC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.7 – 115.5 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −89 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +50 Elo | PHX 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 120.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 113.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +7.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 110.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 28–84th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–2 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.