New York Knicks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Bojan BogdanovicRebounds6
Heat- Terry RozierPoints34
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–109
- Q46.0Caleb Martin defensive rebound99–109
- Q48.1Jalen Brunson misses driving layup99–109
- Q417.0Knicks Full timeout99–109
- Q417.0Haywood Highsmith makes dunk (Caleb Martin assists)99–109
- Q424.0Jimmy Butler defensive rebound99–107
- Q426.1Jalen Brunson misses driving layup99–107
- Q434.1Terry Rozier makes 23-foot step back jumpshot99–107
- Q457.1Jalen Brunson makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot99–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:53Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 88 – 92 MIA · NY 14% → 27% +13NY 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q44:59Bojan Bogdanovic makes 13-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 90 – 92 MIA · NY 25% → 37% +11NY 25% → 37%+11 pts
- Q43:59Precious Achiuwa makes tip shotNY 92 – 92 MIA · NY 35% → 49% +14NY 35% → 49%+14 pts
- Q43:48Haywood Highsmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)NY 92 – 95 MIA · MIA 51% → 72% +21MIA 51% → 72%+21 pts
- Q43:23Bojan Bogdanovic makes 12-foot two point shotNY 94 – 95 MIA · NY 27% → 42% +14NY 27% → 42%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -108
- NY +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 100.8 – 101.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +13 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +9 Elo | NY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 109.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 108.54th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +1.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 110.88th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 19–1718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 2–0 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.