Miami Heat at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Terry RozierPoints27
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints22
- Jordan PooleAssists8
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–107
- Q42.1Jamal Cain defensive rebound119–107
- Q43.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses 30-foot three point jumper119–107
- Q412.1Jamal Cain makes 26-foot three pointer119–107
- Q432.2Jules Bernard makes free throw 2 of 2116–107
- Q432.2Orlando Robinson enters the game for Duncan Robinson116–106
- Q432.2Cole Swider enters the game for Haywood Highsmith116–106
- Q432.2Jamal Cain enters the game for Jimmy Butler116–106
- Q432.2Alondes Williams enters the game for Bam Adebayo116–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:05Terry Rozier makes 27-foot step back jumpshotMIA 38 – 41 WSH · MIA 50% → 57% +8MIA 50% → 57%+8 pts
- Q26:08Tristan Vukcevic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)MIA 41 – 44 WSH · WSH 36% → 43% +8WSH 36% → 43%+8 pts
- Q23:09Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three pointerMIA 52 – 53 WSH · WSH 31% → 39% +8WSH 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q21:32Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)MIA 58 – 55 WSH · MIA 63% → 71% +8MIA 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q230.0Terry Rozier makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 63 – 57 WSH · MIA 71% → 78% +7MIA 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7
- MIA 76%
- Fair odds
- MIA -209
- WSH +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.3 – 105.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −8 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +200 Elo | MIA 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 113.417th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 123.030th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −9.629th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 117.729th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 104.31st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 6–3030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.