Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints20
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Dalano BantonRebounds9
Heat- Thomas BryantPoints26
- Bam AdebayoAssists9
- Thomas BryantRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game82–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter82–142
- Q416.0Rayan Rupert lost ball turnover (Haywood Highsmith steals)82–142
- Q420.1Jamal Cain makes 26-foot step back jumpshot82–142
- Q437.1Ibou Badji makes 18-foot jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)82–139
- Q452.1Delon Wright makes two point shot80–139
- Q455.1Scoot Henderson lost ball turnover (Delon Wright steals)80–137
- Q41:00Ibou Badji defensive rebound80–137
- Q41:02Jamal Cain misses 7-foot two point shot80–137
- Q41:18Rayan Rupert makes two point shot (Jabari Walker assists)80–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:22Kris Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotPOR 3 – 0 MIA · POR 25% → 30% +5POR 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q19:19Rayan Rupert makes 3-foot dunkPOR 9 – 4 MIA · POR 31% → 35% +4POR 31% → 35%+4 pts
- Q19:05Jimmy Butler makes alley oop layup (Bam Adebayo assists)POR 9 – 6 MIA · MIA 65% → 69% +4MIA 65% → 69%+4 pts
- Q17:25Terry Rozier makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)POR 11 – 13 MIA · MIA 72% → 78% +5MIA 72% → 78%+5 pts
- Q16:24Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)POR 13 – 18 MIA · MIA 77% → 82% +5MIA 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8.5
- MIA 80%
- Fair odds
- MIA -303
- POR +303 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 100.0 – 108.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −4 | POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +238 Elo | MIA 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 75.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 109.327th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 108.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.3 | Margin | +0.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 111.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–27 | Road vs home | 18–1720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−49 Elo- Anfernee Simons left knee tendinitis−14 Elo
Heat
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.