Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints32
- Vasilije MicicAssists9
- Brandon MillerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–124
- Q41.1shot clock turnover115–124
- Q425.1Jalen Suggs makes driving layup (Paolo Banchero assists)115–124
- Q435.0Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2113–124
- Q435.0Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2113–123
- Q435.0Franz Wagner personal foul113–122
- Q442.2Paolo Banchero makes driving layup (Gary Harris assists)113–122
- Q442.2Vasilije Micic bad pass (Gary Harris steals)111–122
- Q450.1Hornets defensive team rebound111–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:25Gary Harris makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 63 – 69 CHA · ORL 36% → 46% +9ORL 36% → 46%+9 pts
- Q37:30Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)ORL 63 – 72 CHA · CHA 55% → 65% +9CHA 55% → 65%+9 pts
- Q47:26Davis Bertans makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)ORL 94 – 101 CHA · CHA 62% → 76% +14CHA 62% → 76%+14 pts
- Q43:34Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)ORL 106 – 112 CHA · ORL 6% → 16% +10ORL 6% → 16%+10 pts
- Q43:13Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumperORL 106 – 115 CHA · CHA 86% → 95% +10CHA 86% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -8.5
- ORL 80%
- Fair odds
- ORL -248
- CHA +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 104.8 – 97.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1318 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −44 | ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Missing Nick Richards −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +238 Elo | ORL 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 106.129th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 116.621st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −10.530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 107.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 117.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.624th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–926th of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 10–2826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+3 Elo- Jonathan Isaac back spasms−17 Elo
Hornets
−44 Elo- Nick Richards plantar fasciitis−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 3–0 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.