Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints25
- Kristaps PorzingisAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- Vasilije MicicAssists9
- Miles BridgesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–104
- Q42.1shot clock turnover118–104
- Q427.0JT Thor makes free throw 2 of 2118–104
- Q427.0Hornets offensive team rebound118–103
- Q427.0JT Thor misses free throw 1 of 2118–103
- Q427.0Payton Pritchard shooting foul118–103
- Q435.2Marques Bolden defensive goaltending violation118–103
- Q435.2Payton Pritchard makes 2-foot two point shot118–103
- Q450.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer116–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:00Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 20 – 23 CHA · BOS 73% → 79% +5BOS 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q13:01Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Oshae Brissett assists)BOS 25 – 27 CHA · BOS 74% → 79% +5BOS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q26:57Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 40 – 40 CHA · BOS 74% → 80% +6BOS 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q26:27Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Xavier Tillman assists)BOS 43 – 42 CHA · BOS 76% → 81% +6BOS 76% → 81%+6 pts
- Q25:48Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 46 – 45 CHA · BOS 75% → 81% +6BOS 75% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -16.5
- BOS 94%
- Fair odds
- BOS -569
- CHA +569 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.4 – 102.2 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1713 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +42 | −41 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +464 Elo | BOS 93.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 83.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 106.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 116.922nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.4 | Margin | −10.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 107.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 118.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 3098.9 | Pace | 98.722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 1st of 3026–13 | Road vs home | 10–2626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.