Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints23
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds10
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–92
- Q421.1Jrue Holiday defensive rebound104–92
- Q422.1CJ McCollum misses two point shot104–92
- Q430.08 second turnover104–92
- Q438.1CJ McCollum personal take foul104–92
- Q440.1Payton Pritchard enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis104–92
- Q440.1Trey Murphy III out of bounds lost ball turnover104–92
- Q446.2Naji Marshall defensive rebound104–92
- Q449.1Jayson Tatum misses 26-foot three point jumper104–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:13Jaylen Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 49 – 49 NO · BOS 52% → 60% +8BOS 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q22:54Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 49 – 52 NO · NO 40% → 48% +8NO 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q22:06Herbert Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)BOS 51 – 55 NO · NO 43% → 51% +8NO 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q237.2Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBOS 54 – 56 NO · BOS 45% → 54% +9BOS 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q20.1Derrick White makes 32-foot three pointer (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 59 – 57 NO · BOS 56% → 65% +8BOS 56% → 65%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- NO +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.5 – 109.4 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1707 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | +3 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +139 Elo | BOS 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 115.613th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 110.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.4 | Margin | +5.24th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.2 | Offense rating | 115.89th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 110.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.0 | Pace | 99.617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–13 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.