Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints26
- Scoot HendersonAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints20
- Jalen SuggsAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–104
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound103–104
- Q40.0Deandre Ayton misses 12-foot jumper103–104
- Q412.0Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Gary Harris103–104
- Q412.0Trail Blazers Full timeout103–104
- Q413.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound103–104
- Q415.2Paolo Banchero misses 23-foot three point jumper103–104
- Q430.1Magic Full timeout103–104
- Q436.2Deandre Ayton makes two point shot (Dalano Banton assists)103–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:42Dalano Banton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 89 – 87 ORL · POR 32% → 50% +17POR 32% → 50%+17 pts
- Q45:24Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)POR 89 – 90 ORL · ORL 49% → 67% +18ORL 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q44:42Jalen Suggs makes 3-foot two point shotPOR 91 – 92 ORL · ORL 54% → 67% +13ORL 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q44:12Gary Harris makes 3-foot layup (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)POR 93 – 95 ORL · ORL 60% → 73% +13ORL 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q436.2Deandre Ayton makes two point shot (Dalano Banton assists)POR 103 – 104 ORL · POR 7% → 29% +22POR 7% → 29%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -11
- ORL 86%
- Fair odds
- ORL -428
- POR +428 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 99.4 – 110.5 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | +19 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +311 Elo | ORL 85.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 80.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 110.526th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 108.33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +2.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.624th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–28 | Road vs home | 26–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.