Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Cole AnthonyAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints36
- Zion WilliamsonAssists5
- CJ McCollumRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–108
- Q41.0CJ McCollum makes 3-foot layup (Naji Marshall assists)117–108
- Q47.1Naji Marshall enters the game for Dyson Daniels117–106
- Q47.1Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Trey Murphy III117–106
- Q47.1Matt Ryan enters the game for Herbert Jones117–106
- Q47.1Trey Murphy III ejected117–106
- Q47.1Dyson Daniels ejected117–106
- Q47.1Herbert Jones ejected117–106
- Q47.1Franz Wagner makes technical free throw117–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:11Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 45 – 40 NO · ORL 55% → 63% +8ORL 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q25.1Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)ORL 58 – 55 NO · NO 34% → 42% +8NO 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q311:21Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 61 – 57 NO · ORL 52% → 61% +9ORL 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q310:16Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 66 – 57 NO · ORL 67% → 75% +8ORL 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q36:09Jalen Suggs makes 23-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 77 – 68 NO · ORL 69% → 77% +8ORL 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- NO 55%
- Fair odds
- NO -104
- ORL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.4 – 103.7 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −5 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +34 Elo | NO 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 115.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 110.58th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +4.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 99.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 21–1617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.