Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints52
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds19
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints30
- CJ McCollumAssists9
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–111
- Q43.1shot clock turnover124–111
- Q427.0Kevin Durant defensive rebound124–111
- Q429.1Dyson Daniels misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot124–111
- Q435.2Bradley Beal makes 27-foot three pointer (Kevin Durant assists)124–111
- Q455.1Jusuf Nurkic vs. Zion Williamson (Devin Booker gains possession)121–111
- Q455.1Suns defensive team rebound121–111
- Q455.1(00:55.5) [Suns] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Suns] retain their timeout121–111
- Q455.1Suns Coach's Challenge121–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:29Kevin Durant makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 12 – 7 NO · PHX 47% → 54% +6PHX 47% → 54%+6 pts
- Q19:16CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 12 – 10 NO · NO 46% → 53% +6NO 46% → 53%+6 pts
- Q18:31Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)PHX 14 – 13 NO · NO 48% → 55% +6NO 48% → 55%+6 pts
- Q17:11Devin Booker makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPHX 17 – 13 NO · PHX 45% → 52% +7PHX 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q15:57Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointer (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 23 – 15 NO · PHX 54% → 61% +7PHX 54% → 61%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 60%
- Fair odds
- NO -133
- PHX +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 109.8 – 111.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −3 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +72 Elo | NO 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 115.213th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 110.38th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +5.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 110.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 21–1516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.